STRATEGY LAB · العربيّة

Is the breakout strategy on Bitcoin (BTC) profitable?

The rule: Buy BTC when it closes above its 50-day high, sell at +20% or −10% or after 60 days · since 2017-12-14

📡 Live readings on Telegram
1,000$ put in following the strategy
1,831$
+83.1% · worst drop of the balance 38.9%
1,000$ put in just holding the coin
4,311$
+331% · worst drop of the balance 83.3%
1,000$ put in buying on random days, same target and stop
1,050$
+5.0%
trades
44
won 43.2%
YearStrategyHolding the coin
2017−10.4%−24.9%
2018−19.6%−72.0%
2019+10.2%+94.5%
2020+41.6%+302%
2021+6.1%+59.8%
2022−19.6%−64.2%
2023+18.9%+156%
2024+55.6%+121%
2025+7.4%−6.3%
2026 (so far)−4.0%−13.4%
The answer: Holding the coin did better than the strategy. Buying on random days did worse, so the strategy timing helped. Its worst drop was milder than holding the coin.
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updated 2026-11-08

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BTC with another strategy

Buy the dipMoving averageRegular buying

Breakout on other coins

ETHSOLXRPBNBADADOGELTCLINKTRXAVAXDOTBCHSHIBNEARATOMUNIPEPESUIETC

How we tested

  • Complete daily candles from our records for each coin, from its first day to the last close, refreshed every night.
  • 0.4% cost per full trade (fee and slippage), one trade at a time with the whole balance.
  • Buy at the next open after the signal. If one day touches both the target and the stop, the stop counts first: the worse case.
  • Random entries: the same number of trades with the same target and stop on random days, repeated 30 times, median shown.
  • The result describes what happened in the past and promises nothing about the future.
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