STRATEGY LAB · العربيّة

Is buying the dip on Bitcoin (BTC) profitable?

The rule: Buy BTC after a day that fell 10%, sell at +10% or −10% or after 30 days · since 2017-10-26

📡 Live readings on Telegram
1,000$ put in following the strategy
647$
−35.3% · worst drop of the balance 59.1%
1,000$ put in just holding the coin
13,219$
+1,222% · worst drop of the balance 83.3%
1,000$ put in buying on random days, same target and stop
1,040$
+4.0%
trades
26
won 46.2%
YearStrategyHolding the coin
2017+29.2%+130%
2018−29.3%−72.0%
2019−28.0%+94.5%
2020−1.8%+302%
2021+5.7%+59.8%
2022−13.5%−64.2%
2023no trades+156%
2024no trades+121%
2025no trades−6.3%
2026 (so far)+9.6%−13.4%
The answer: Holding the coin did better than the strategy. Buying on random days did better, so the strategy timing did not help. Its worst drop was milder than holding the coin.
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updated 2026-11-08

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BTC with another strategy

BreakoutMoving averageRegular buying

Buy the dip on other coins

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How we tested

  • Complete daily candles from our records for each coin, from its first day to the last close, refreshed every night.
  • 0.4% cost per full trade (fee and slippage), one trade at a time with the whole balance.
  • Buy at the next open after the signal. If one day touches both the target and the stop, the stop counts first: the worse case.
  • Random entries: the same number of trades with the same target and stop on random days, repeated 30 times, median shown.
  • The result describes what happened in the past and promises nothing about the future.
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