The question: when Bitcoin jumps or drops hard (1% or more within one hour), do other coins follow in the next hour, or within four hours?
How we looked: we took a full year. It held 388 hours in which Bitcoin moved hard (186 up, 202 down). For every coin we then asked: after each of those hours, did the coin move the same way? We compared that with what the coin would do by chance (how often it normally agrees with Bitcoin in any ordinary hour). And we split the year in two halves to make sure what we saw in one half repeats in the other.
The answer: of 40 coins tested, 0 proved to follow Bitcoin an hour later more than chance would. What actually happens: 40 of 40 coins move in the same hour as Bitcoin — not after it. In plain words: when Bitcoin moves, everything moves with it in that same hour; whoever waits an hour to catch the move arrives late.
| Coin | Times tested (first half | second) | Followed in the next hour — first half | Second half | Followed within 4 hours — first | Second | If it were chance | When does it move with Bitcoin? | Repeats in both halves? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEAR | 260 | 128 | 128 (49%) | 60 (47%) | 123 (47%) | 63 (49%) | 48.7% | same hour (strong) | no |
| HMSTR | 260 | 128 | 126 (48%) | 58 (45%) | 120 (46%) | 63 (49%) | 49.1% | same hour (medium) | no |
| FIL | 260 | 128 | 114 (44%) | 53 (41%) | 118 (45%) | 65 (51%) | 48.5% | same hour (strong) | no |
| VIRTUAL | 260 | 128 | 129 (50%) | 58 (45%) | 119 (46%) | 67 (52%) | 48.6% | same hour (strong) | no |
| UNI | 260 | 128 | 128 (49%) | 52 (41%) | 134 (52%) | 60 (47%) | 48.6% | same hour (strong) | no |
| PYTH | 260 | 128 | 127 (49%) | 57 (45%) | 125 (48%) | 56 (44%) | 48.5% | same hour (strong) | no |
| XPL | 260 | 128 | 130 (50%) | 61 (48%) | 119 (46%) | 67 (52%) | 49.1% | same hour (strong) | no |
| PENGU | 260 | 128 | 126 (48%) | 58 (45%) | 128 (49%) | 59 (46%) | 49.4% | same hour (strong) | no |
| HOME | 260 | 128 | 117 (45%) | 60 (47%) | 126 (48%) | 59 (46%) | 49.2% | same hour (weak) | no |
| PUMP | 260 | 128 | 130 (50%) | 59 (46%) | 135 (52%) | 59 (46%) | 48.4% | same hour (strong) | no |
| BANK | 260 | 128 | 123 (47%) | 59 (46%) | 120 (46%) | 63 (49%) | 48.6% | same hour (weak) | no |
| XRP | 260 | 128 | 141 (54%) | 58 (45%) | 123 (47%) | 65 (51%) | 49.1% | same hour (strong) | no |
| FET | 260 | 128 | 127 (49%) | 51 (40%) | 112 (43%) | 63 (49%) | 48.0% | same hour (strong) | no |
| LTC | 260 | 128 | 132 (51%) | 59 (46%) | 125 (48%) | 59 (46%) | 48.5% | same hour (strong) | no |
| ONDO | 260 | 128 | 131 (50%) | 53 (41%) | 131 (50%) | 64 (50%) | 48.7% | same hour (strong) | no |
| BIO | 260 | 128 | 131 (50%) | 49 (38%) | 132 (51%) | 62 (48%) | 48.9% | same hour (medium) | no |
| SUI | 260 | 128 | 128 (49%) | 53 (41%) | 124 (48%) | 58 (45%) | 48.0% | same hour (strong) | no |
| AR | 260 | 128 | 114 (44%) | 51 (40%) | 122 (47%) | 53 (41%) | 48.2% | same hour (strong) | no |
| POL | 260 | 128 | 125 (48%) | 59 (46%) | 115 (44%) | 59 (46%) | 49.1% | same hour (strong) | no |
| WLD | 260 | 128 | 124 (48%) | 57 (45%) | 135 (52%) | 64 (50%) | 48.3% | same hour (strong) | no |
| ETH | 260 | 128 | 136 (52%) | 55 (43%) | 126 (48%) | 66 (52%) | 48.5% | same hour (strong) | no |
| XLM | 260 | 128 | 130 (50%) | 62 (48%) | 134 (52%) | 62 (48%) | 48.8% | same hour (strong) | no |
| EPIC | 260 | 128 | 115 (44%) | 60 (47%) | 116 (45%) | 55 (43%) | 48.5% | same hour (weak) | no |
| GIGGLE | 260 | 128 | 133 (51%) | 60 (47%) | 118 (45%) | 57 (45%) | 48.5% | same hour (weak) | no |
| RED | 260 | 128 | 125 (48%) | 55 (43%) | 128 (49%) | 59 (46%) | 48.2% | same hour (medium) | no |
| ADA | 260 | 128 | 140 (54%) | 52 (41%) | 124 (48%) | 57 (45%) | 48.4% | same hour (strong) | no |
| ICP | 260 | 128 | 122 (47%) | 56 (44%) | 119 (46%) | 63 (49%) | 47.9% | same hour (strong) | no |
| TAO | 260 | 128 | 124 (48%) | 60 (47%) | 133 (51%) | 67 (52%) | 48.0% | same hour (strong) | no |
| LDO | 260 | 128 | 124 (48%) | 52 (41%) | 126 (48%) | 60 (47%) | 48.1% | same hour (strong) | no |
| SOL | 260 | 128 | 139 (53%) | 57 (45%) | 139 (53%) | 62 (48%) | 48.9% | same hour (strong) | no |
| JUP | 260 | 128 | 127 (49%) | 51 (40%) | 132 (51%) | 55 (43%) | 48.6% | same hour (strong) | no |
| SAGA | 260 | 128 | 124 (48%) | 50 (39%) | 119 (46%) | 54 (42%) | 48.6% | same hour (medium) | no |
| SYRUP | 260 | 128 | 131 (50%) | 54 (42%) | 134 (52%) | 62 (48%) | 49.6% | same hour (strong) | no |
| ZEC | 260 | 128 | 128 (49%) | 61 (48%) | 125 (48%) | 65 (51%) | 49.1% | same hour (medium) | no |
| DOGE | 260 | 128 | 133 (51%) | 50 (39%) | 122 (47%) | 61 (48%) | 48.8% | same hour (strong) | no |
| HYPE | 260 | 128 | 116 (45%) | 53 (41%) | 113 (43%) | 70 (55%) | 48.9% | same hour (strong) | no |
| EUL | 260 | 128 | 135 (52%) | 65 (51%) | 134 (52%) | 61 (48%) | 49.1% | same hour (medium) | no |
| KAS | 260 | 128 | 131 (50%) | 60 (47%) | 129 (50%) | 66 (52%) | 49.2% | same hour (strong) | no |
| DEXE | 260 | 128 | 128 (49%) | 54 (42%) | 129 (50%) | 66 (52%) | 48.0% | same hour (weak) | no |
| TUT | 260 | 128 | 131 (50%) | 57 (45%) | 123 (47%) | 55 (43%) | 49.4% | same hour (weak) | no |
How to read the table: «followed» means the coin moved the same way as Bitcoin (up after its rise, down after its drop). «If it were chance» is how often the coin agrees with Bitcoin in any ordinary hour — if the number is not clearly higher, there is no real following. «When does it move with Bitcoin?» says whether the coin moves in the same hour as Bitcoin or hours later. A coin is listed only if we tested it at least 30 times in each half. This page tells what happened in the past and promises nothing about the future. How we judge · Coin record · Big prints