BTC Big Wave Plan — the record
$1,000 from 2017-10: with the plan about 32,223$, worst drop 42%; holding about 12,911$, worst drop 83%.
The question
Would stepping out of BTC into dollars in its down-waves, and back in its up-waves, have beaten holding it?
How we checked
Closed daily candles from our record since 2017-10. Execution at the next day open, 0.2% cost on each buy or sell. Numbers are calculated on past prices; live tracking started 2026-10-27.
Since 2026-11-06 the plan moves only on a clear close past its line, so false signals are fewer. Every number here is calculated with this rule on past prices. The sale of 2026-11-05 was announced before this change and stands.
Year-by-Year Comparison: The Plan vs Holding
| Year | With the Plan | Held & Did Not Follow | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | -26% | -72% | Plan+46% |
| 2019 | +137% | +95% | Plan+42% |
| 2020 | +207% | +302% | Hold+95% |
| 2021 | +90% | +60% | Plan+30% |
| 2022 | -20% | -64% | Plan+44% |
| 2023 | +89% | +156% | Hold+67% |
| 2024 | +94% | +121% | Hold+27% |
| 2025 | +6% | -6% | Plan+13% |
| 2026 (so far) | +1% | -13% | Plan+14% |
The Plan's Trade Record: Entries & Exits to Cash
The record of every trade by the plan step by step: enters on wave confirmation and exits to USD cash when the wave breaks to protect capital (whereas buy-and-hold investors never sold).
| Buy Date | Buy Price | Sell Date | Sell / Current Price | Move Between |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 69,328$ | open | 75,865$ (current) | +9.4% |
| 17 Apr 2026 | 77,072$ | 01 Jun 2026 | 71,409$ | -7.3% |
| 01 Oct 2025 | 118,588$ | 10 Oct 2025 | 112,768$ | -4.9% |
| 10 Sep 2025 | 113,957$ | 25 Sep 2025 | 108,991$ | -4.4% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | 93,443$ | 29 Aug 2025 | 108,379$ | +16.0% |
| 19 Sep 2024 | 62,948$ | 17 Feb 2025 | 95,780$ | +52.2% |
| 19 Jul 2024 | 66,660$ | 02 Aug 2024 | 61,498$ | -7.7% |
| 03 May 2024 | 62,882$ | 18 Jun 2024 | 65,175$ | +3.6% |
| 16 Oct 2023 | 28,501$ | 01 May 2024 | 58,365$ | +104.8% |
| 20 Jun 2023 | 28,308$ | 17 Aug 2023 | 26,623$ | -6.0% |
| 12 Jan 2023 | 18,850$ | 05 Jun 2023 | 25,728$ | +36.5% |
| 04 Nov 2022 | 21,144$ | 08 Nov 2022 | 18,545$ | -12.3% |
| 23 Mar 2022 | 42,884$ | 11 Apr 2022 | 39,530$ | -7.8% |
| 05 Aug 2021 | 40,863$ | 04 Dec 2021 | 49,171$ | +20.3% |
| 30 Jul 2021 | 42,162$ | 02 Aug 2021 | 39,137$ | -7.2% |
| 24 Sep 2020 | 10,735$ | 12 May 2021 | 49,650$ | +362.5% |
| 29 Apr 2020 | 8,777$ | 23 Sep 2020 | 10,238$ | +16.6% |
| 07 Jan 2020 | 8,146$ | 08 Mar 2020 | 8,032$ | -1.4% |
| 02 Sep 2019 | 10,339$ | 10 Sep 2019 | 10,100$ | -2.3% |
| 20 Feb 2019 | 3,977$ | 28 Aug 2019 | 9,727$ | +144.6% |
| 28 Aug 2018 | 7,077$ | 05 Sep 2018 | 6,708$ | -5.2% |
| 22 Jul 2018 | 7,730$ | 03 Aug 2018 | 6,994$ | -9.5% |
| 27 Apr 2018 | 9,357$ | 10 May 2018 | 8,572$ | -8.4% |
| 23 Apr 2018 | 9,347$ | 24 Apr 2018 | 8,963$ | -4.1% |
🔒 Calls younger than 14 days reach VIP members on the day and appear here 14 days later. (1 right now)
Prices are the close of the signal day. Every call is shown as it happened, winners and losers.
Major Crashes the Plan Avoided by Exiting to USD Cash
Dates when the plan exited Bitcoin into 100% USD cash (0% risk) and when it re-entered. During these exact periods, buy-and-hold investors never sold and suffered these drawdowns:
| Plan Exit to USD | Exit Price | Plan Re-entry | Re-entry Price | Drop for Buy & Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | 112,768$ | 17 Apr 2026 | 77,072$ | -44.2% |
| 17 Feb 2025 | 95,780$ | 22 Apr 2025 | 93,443$ | -20.3% |
| 11 Apr 2022 | 39,530$ | 04 Nov 2022 | 21,144$ | -53.3% |
| 04 Dec 2021 | 49,171$ | 23 Mar 2022 | 42,884$ | -28.7% |
| 12 May 2021 | 49,650$ | 30 Jul 2021 | 42,162$ | -40.0% |
| 08 Mar 2020 | 8,032$ | 29 Apr 2020 | 8,777$ | -39.9% |
| 10 Sep 2019 | 10,100$ | 07 Jan 2020 | 8,146$ | -34.4% |
| 05 Sep 2018 | 6,708$ | 20 Feb 2019 | 3,977$ | -52.1% |
| 10 May 2018 | 8,572$ | 22 Jul 2018 | 7,730$ | -32.6% |
Every small loss (−3% to −8%) in the trade table above acts as an insurance premium that shielded capital from these violent crashes.